What is the 4% rule and is it still valid?

The 4% rule comes from the 1998 Trinity Study, suggesting you can withdraw 4% of your portfolio in year one, adjusting for inflation, with a high probability of lasting 30 years. Recent research by Wade Pfau suggests 3.3-3.5% may be more appropriate in low-yield environments.

How much do I really need to retire?

A common guideline is 25× your annual expenses (the inverse of the 4% rule). For $60,000/year in retirement, target $1.5 million. However, Social Security and pensions can reduce this amount significantly.

When should I start saving for retirement?

As early as possible. Starting at age 25 vs. 35 with $500/month at 7% means $1.4M vs. $680K by age 65 — more than double, thanks to compound growth.

What sources are used for these projections?

Return assumptions based on Ibbotson Associates historical data. Social Security figures from SSA.gov. Inflation data from Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index. Safe withdrawal rate from the Trinity Study and updated research.

What is the 4% rule and is it still valid?

The 4% rule comes from the 1998 Trinity Study, suggesting you can withdraw 4% of your portfolio in year one, adjusting for inflation, with a high probability of lasting 30 years. Recent research by Wade Pfau suggests 3.3-3.5% may be more appropriate in low-yield environments.

How much do I really need to retire?

A common guideline is 25× your annual expenses (the inverse of the 4% rule). For $60,000/year in retirement, target $1.5 million. However, Social Security and pensions can reduce this amount significantly.

When should I start saving for retirement?

As early as possible. Starting at age 25 vs. 35 with $500/month at 7% means $1.4M vs. $680K by age 65 — more than double, thanks to compound growth.

What sources are used for these projections?

Return assumptions based on Ibbotson Associates historical data. Social Security figures from SSA.gov. Inflation data from Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index. Safe withdrawal rate from the Trinity Study and updated research.

Educational Tool — Estimates for educational purposes only. Not financial advice.Disclaimer

Behavioral Insight

Multiple round numbers detected (3 inputs). Real financial figures are rarely this clean. Using exact figures from your accounts, quotes, or statements produces more accurate projections.

Retirement planning requires more than guesswork. This advanced projection calculator models your savings growth, accounts for Social Security income, adjusts for inflation, and analyzes whether your nest egg will sustain your desired lifestyle using the evidence-based 4% safe withdrawal rule.

Retirement Projection Calculator

Advanced retirement planner with Social Security estimates, inflation-adjusted projections, and withdrawal strategy analysis using the 4% rule.

February 2026 (market data)

Current Age

Retirement Age

Life Expectancy

Average US life expectancy: 77 years (CDC)

Current Retirement Savings

Monthly Contribution

Expected Annual Return

S&P 500 historical avg: ~10% (7% after inflation)

Inflation Rate

Historical US avg: ~3% (BLS CPI data)

Desired Annual Retirement Income

Expected Monthly Social Security

Avg SSA benefit: $1,907/mo (2024)

Your Results

Savings at Retirement

$2,376,362.00

Inflation-Adjusted Value

$844,520.00

Monthly Income (Portfolio + SS)

$5,000.00

Portfolio Lasts Until Age

Surplus / (Gap)

$4,735,790.00

Total Contributions

$470,000.00

Investment Growth

$1,906,362.00

Safe Withdrawal Rate

1.60%

Visualization

Wally's Analysis

AI-powered interpretation of your results

AI Summary

Key Insights

Optimization

What-If Scenarios

Structured Analysis

Meaning • Impact • Risk • Alternatives • Sensitivity

sensitivity

Return Rate Sensitivity

At 7% annual return, a ±1% change would shift your final balance by approximately 10-15%. Historical S&P 500 real returns average ~7%. Consider modeling both optimistic and conservative scenarios.

sensitivity

Aggressive Savings

What if you increase contributions by 25% to $1,250/month? Expected impact: 25% more contributions compound to significantly higher wealth.

Structured analysis generated algorithmically. Not financial advice.

Retirement Readiness

✓

On Track

1.6% withdrawal rate (safe — below 4% rule)

Conservative (3%)Standard (4%)Aggressive (6%)Risky (8%+)

Portfolio lasts until age 90. You'll have $4,735,790 remaining.

Savings Milestones

$100KAge 33

$250KAge 40

$500KAge 46

$1000K ($1M)Age 54

$2000K ($2M)Age 63

Growth Projection

Age	Balance	Contributed	Growth
31	$66,007	$62,000	$4,007
33	$101,576	$86,000	$15,576
35	$142,474	$110,000	$32,474
37	$189,499	$134,000	$55,499
39	$243,568	$158,000	$85,568
41	$305,737	$182,000	$123,737
43	$377,219	$206,000	$171,219
45	$459,410	$230,000	$229,410
47	$553,913	$254,000	$299,913
49	$662,574	$278,000	$384,574
51	$787,512	$302,000	$485,512
53	$931,167	$326,000	$605,167
55	$1,096,343	$350,000	$746,343
57	$1,286,262	$374,000	$912,262
59	$1,504,633	$398,000	$1,106,633
61	$1,755,717	$422,000	$1,333,717
63	$2,044,415	$446,000	$1,598,415
65	$2,376,362	$470,000	$1,906,362

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AI Disclosure

Wally's Analysis uses GPT-4o-mini for educational interpretations. AI responses are not personalized financial advice and may be inaccurate. All core calculations are deterministic — AI only interprets results.AI Transparency →

Accuracy Commitment

Industry-standard formulas vetted against IRS, SSA, BLS, CFPB. Client-side calculations. Regularly updated.

This calculator provides estimates based on historical data and assumptions. Actual results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future returns. Social Security benefits may change. Consult a certified financial planner for personalized retirement advice. Source: Trinity Study (1998), updated by Wade Pfau research.

Updated: February 2026 (market data) · Methodology

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